TAIWAN IS LOST
Get over it and work out how you can protect Australia if you can...
There is a lot of speculation that China will attack Taiwan and the USA will then assist the small island in defeating the Chinese with ease. For myself, I just do not see that scenario happening since Taiwan is military speaking already a lost cause. Should you read Code Name Mel’s Choice you will find me quoting a RAND Corporation report that caused shockwaves but seemingly is forgotten now. The report stated that in 1996 the US would have needed 2.1 air wings of between 66 and 72 aircraft each to protect Taiwan from Chinese air superiority. Right? We get that thinking, a MIG-21 is no match for an F-16, F-15 or F-18 but will certainly shoot down an F-35 if it can get close enough. But because the Chinese increased their capabilities so much since 1996 the situation turned on its head.
Most of the Chinese Air Force Fourth Generation (and 4++) aircraft are relatively new and they have no need to scrounge museums for spare parts like the US Marines are forced to do, shamefully so. They have sufficient parts available and the mechanics to service the aircraft, you may comprehend, if the aircraft fly more, the maintenance is more, the entire Air Force must then up its game dramatically. The aircraft they fly are locally built (and they are built well) Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker B+, the Sukhoi Su-30MKK Flanker-G as well as the Mikoyan MiG-35 Fulcrum-F. It also seems that their Fifth-Generation fighters, the Shenyang J-31 and the Chengdu J-20, are operational since 2018. Both of which are equal to the US F-22 and F-35 and with better missiles, much better, because of their lead in Artificial Intelligence besides the South African influence. What is more, they are busy developing, with Russian help, a large strategic stealth bomber.
We look for patterns in my world, ask yourself, why would China want a large, long-range strategic bomber incorporating stealth technology? Who are they going to target? Russia? India? Their major BRICS partners? Nah, contemplate also on their expanded nuclear submarines, attack and missile boats, the aircraft carriers and the expansion into the South China Sea and Africa and make your own conclusions. I warned many times in my books what is happening. Up to now, I am ignored because I bring bad news. Whatever. That does not make me necessarily wrong.
According to the RAND Report, by 2003, the number of fighter aircraft needed to protect Taiwan, to give air superiority, became 10.6 wings. By 2010 you needed 19.6 wings and by 2017, 29.9 wings or to say, 2,000 fighter aircraft. The RAND Report concluded that the results of their scenario were “staggering.” Yes, indeed. Flatly put, the US does not have such resources available nor the pilots to fly them. As is it cannot train enough pilots and keep them inside the military despite offering ridiculous bonuses to re-enlist. What is more, the US airframes are old and worn out with availability rates that are shockingly bad, pathetic is the word that comes to mind, as low as any Third World Air Force like Nigeria. And let me be even blunter, the US Navy will never risk its precious carriers inside Chinese missile range to help Taiwan even if they can be deployed quickly enough (another problem, another discussion, inside my books - see Code Name Lucy).
Now let us look at something else, Chinese naval gunnery. Western navies have standardised their deck guns (mostly) to the 76mm calibre. The best known here is the Italian designed OTO Breda or OTO Melara (preceding the Breda). It is a modern semi-automatic naval cannon able to give devastating fire support (if in range) and even take on surface-to-surface missiles as a CIWS system, firing beehive shells. The gun is in use in dozens of navies across the globe and copied by the Iranians, illegally so. Yet, as came out in Code Name Ndebele 14, the South African Navy is thinking of upgrading their OTO Breda and Melara deck guns to the homemade magnificent 155mm G5 able to shoot accurately at 43 miles. The OTO 76mm range is limited to between 17 and 27 miles – a technical discussion is in that book because like always, logistics play a major role.
* As a side note, the naval 76mm was also used by the South Africans on their Rooikat armoured reconnaissance vehicles. That was the first known time where a naval gun was put on an armoured vehicle (see Code Name One Alpha where the Rooikat is discussed).The Rooikat’s gun was then upgraded to the Denel 105mm which is in another class and based on the British L7, probably the best tank cannon of its time and more than adequate for this theatre.
I will use the Chinese Type 052D or Kunming class, which is known as "a Chinese Aegis class," to illustrate my point. You better take note if American and reading my blogs because that Chinese destroyer can track your stealth fighters and shoot them down at long distances. Yes, we know, I have been warning in most GMJ Books that stealth is a myth and the F35 is rubbish that will cost lives. The Kunming class use flat-array AESA radar (originally Israeli in concept, see Code Name Mel’s Choice) combined with a VLS (Vertical Launch System) and modern long-range anti-air missiles. These ships and the class that followed them, have better electronics and weapon systems than what the US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers have and the same role, to protect the aircraft carriers which China is building. Without air superiority, either via aircraft or deniability of enemy aircraft and missiles close to you via long-range surface-to-air missiles and CIWS (Close-In Weapons Systems), you will be sunk or lose a conventional war, it is that simple. In this respect, the Chinese Navy have the H/PJ-11, an eleven-barrelled 30mm CIWS system shooting 10,000 shells per minute with a 96% success rate in downing missiles coming at them at Mach 4. That is much better than the older US Navy Phalanx system, still in the old 20mm calibre that lacks range and destructive power (also discussed in many of my books).
It seems to us that the Chinese thought long and hard on what they wanted and then started building at a rate that will make the Chinese Navy larger and more powerful than the US & Royal Navies combined and with modern vessels (the Roosevelt-Dreadnought Principle again,) within the next two decades. What is particularly impressive is that they are doing so in a very planned and systematic way. Again, let us analyse the patterns here – first came the smaller escort vessels in large numbers combined with advanced submarines using the best technology from anywhere (Russia, South Africa, Israel and homegrown). Then only the large aircraft carriers, experimenting to see what works for them in a combination of size and quality, the age-old Chinese outlook of more is better. My sources tell me that they would rather have twice as many aircraft groups like the US Navy, even if smaller, than risking all on a few vastly expensive Ford & Nimitz & Queen Elizabeth class carriers. Ironically, what the West jeer at – the Russian designed 61,000-ton heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser – is seen by them as the baseline to start from. Their aircraft carriers will be smaller, I am told, but they will have many more of them and they will have steam catapults, time will tell. However, what we see right now is smart, really smart, thinking, they are setting up the groundwork very methodologically. We also note that the same CIWS is to be found on their carriers and other vessels, meaning a standardisation of parts and ammunition, again, smart thinking. They might also be going the nuclear aircraft carrier route. Certainly, they are planning such ships and by the way, they are building more warships every year than all the Western Navies combined. And of course, they have the choke point countries under their control but again, you have to read my books to understand what I just said. No one in the Pentagon woke up to the strategic moves yet and probably will not until too late.
What is odd though is that the main deck gun on Chinese surface vessels is upgraded to 130mm (against most Western ships that have a 76mm deck gun as described). This means heavier and longer distance gunnery support to their Marines to me. Marines are not defensive troops in any sense of the word. They attack first and talk later, and they attack islands like Taiwan. China also has considerable airborne and special forces besides a good espionage service (see Code Name Unbutton). Thus, they will have local air superiority, and deny Taiwanese forces assistance by dominating all space around the island. Tell me, what are you going to do then? What? Taiwan is gone whenever Beijing decides to make the move. It is the new Poland of 1939, fighting bravely but with only one end. It cannot be defended anymore. And don’t think that the above, summarized from hundreds of pages, is not known. The above thinking is well-known outside the Washington bubble of “exceptionalism.” Let us hope though that the scenario will never play out.
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I would recommend you to also read the new GMJ book, OATH OF EVIL - The War on Protestantism, where a lot more is revealed, i.e. that the USA is a hijacked country taken over by the Papacy - as predicted in the Bible. We are seeing it playing off right in front of us. A complimentary electronic copy of the 700-page book is available at the bottom of the home page of this website. You need to subscribe to receive it in either EPub or Mobi format. You can unsubscribe later. It is a gift from me. Please read it and spread the word.
* All 51 GMJ books deal with modern military subjects like espionage, counterterrorism, military strategy, military history, and exposing mainstream media lies/propaganda. The GMJ books are a delight for lovers of military history with content to be found outside the schoolbook-approved histories. What is revealed in the GMJ books are shocking to the uninitiated. Prepare to find out the true state of affairs that no mainstream outlet will publish. If you wish to read about Covert and Special Forces Operations in sub-Saharan Africa, the new battleground where the radicals are to be found, the GMJ Books are the place to start. You will learn about covert operations, Special Forces techniques, and military history not known outside the select few.