The USA and NATO lost the AI war with China hands down.
In many books, I warned of the Chinese Artificial Intelligence Program. On 6 December 2020, China announced a breakthrough in quantum computers. “Xinhua, China’s official news agency, claimed the computer was 10 billion times faster than Google’s Sycamore machine, which was launched last year. The research also claimed the prototype was 100 trillion times faster than Japan’s Fukagu supercomputer, launched in June and widely held to be the faster computer in the world.”
This is not just a bit faster but massively so. Now, who spends the most on this new technology? “In an effort to beat the US to quantum superiority, China had announced it was investing $10 billion (£7.44 billion) into a new National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences earlier this year. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump set aside $1 billion (£744 million) in funding for artificial intelligence and quantum information research this year.” (Copyright for the above quotes belongs to https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1368914/China-news-supercomputer-fugaku-quantum-supremacy-technology-us-ont.)
What more do I need to say? With this, military defeat is ensured for the West. Why? Because China is going to dominate the world through its advances in AI and other emerging technologies. The US has already missed out on a chance to prevent it. Now the Pentagon’s software chief, Nicolas Chaillan, confirmed what we warned about for years: “We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion,”
Chaillan was also the first chief software officer for the US Air Force before he resigned in disgust and went public with his projections. He further pointed out that “Washington might be spending three times more than Beijing on defense, but this money is being used in the wrong areas. AI and other emerging technologies are more crucial for America’s future than massive and high-budget hardware projects like fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.”
Well, the F35 FAILURE is not to be even discussed here. It is not stealthy, cannot fly in clouds, has a retrofitted gun that cannot shoot accurately and kills its pilots because of oxygen problems. I mocked it in enough books. But let me say again, without air superiority you cannot win a conventional war. Now let us see what else we know and warned about. Beijing wants to create a $150bn Artificial Intelligence Industry by 2030… If they do this and every indication is that they will, the US will be left even further behind.
What was the result of all the Chinese supercomputers besides the missiles and codebreaking?
They now deploy what analysts describe as high-end reconnaissance-strike unmanned aerial system (UAS) drones. Yes, and those drones can hit 5 targets one after the other using 5 different types of missiles in a single sortie, controlled by a single operator. A 100% hit rate, and at fast-moving targets. Now, this may not sound to you like much, we know that the US and other countries used drones for decades, we also know that they have a 96.5% failure rate in hitting the intended target, the most pathetic record on counterinsurgency/counterterrorism in the world. To put the new Chinese UAS in perspective, the US counterpart had not one hit reported in 8 years of development. The way the Chinese use their drones is also unique, they are also cargo lifters able to get in close and drop much-needed supplies quicker – on average 90 minutes quicker - and safer than any fixed-wing or helicopter can do. The operating costs of a drone are very much cheaper as well and no human lives are risked – it costs time and money to train pilots. But that is not all, the drones, like their counterparts elsewhere, have advanced electronics to jam radar and fight back (see Code Name Blue Tang on how the South African Air Force uses theirs as force-multipliers and AEW).
In Code Name Unbutton, we discussed the US drone ships, still not operational but still: “And that is her problem.” I observed, “When she actively searches electronically by way of sonar or radar, her position will immediately be betrayed. The threat receivers will pick her up and the missiles will home in. She does not have a CIWS system. Therefore, she can only defend herself by jamming, chaff and flares. A major problem. The Yanks probably think that they will have air superiority everywhere. It is insane thinking.”
CIWS (Close-In Weapons Systems) are those fast-firing automated cannons you find on warships and at times on land, designed to splash incoming missiles and even mortar rounds. As I warned in Code Name Lucy, the Chinese Navy is currently the leader of the pack with their H/PJ-11 CIWS, an eleven-barrelled 30mm CIWS system shooting 10,000 shells per minute. It has an unbelievably good 96% success rate in downing missiles coming at them at Mach 4. There is nothing in the West able to compete. The Dutch Goalkeeper CIWS also is in the 30mm calibre but only with 7 barrels, which limits it to 4,200 rounds per minute. The USS Navy Phalanx system sadly still is in the old 20mm calibre which limits range. This means that the latest Russian and Chinese missiles, able to dodge CIWS, will get through.
It seems to us that the Chinese thought long and hard on what they wanted and then started building at a rate that will make the Chinese Navy larger and more powerful than the US & Royal Navies combined and with modern vessels within the next two decades (the Roosevelt-Dreadnought Principle again). What is particularly impressive is that they are doing so in a very planned and systematic way. All the above weapons are due to AI design and testing. It is crucial and the West lost.
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