I am asked this question a lot these days. Who will win if a war breaks out? The short answer is the USA will win a conventional war against Iran but they will pay dearly in casualties and Mr Trump will lose the next election. The “restructuring phase” will take 10 years or more. But let us look at the US Military Strategy, their so-called “Shock and Awe” Principle which is so well-known that it will never work against a First World Military (which Iran is not). As is, I write of this often in my books, the US always follows the same pattern right throughout recent history. How they get to a war situation is another question but it is totally controlled. They are never “dragged in” or “against their will” but carefully orchestrate their participation by false flag operations and/or deliberate action like sanctions designed to cause war – Japan, 1941, Iran 2019. The false flags from the USS Maine (Cuba – the war against Spain that made the US a colonial imperialist power), Gulf of Tonkin (Vietnam) and many more are well-known and discussed elsewhere in my books. At the moment they have two war mongrels in the form of John Bolton, the dual Israeli/US citizen and Mike Pompeo, rated now as the very worst Secretary of State in their less than glorious history. Neither they nor Mr Trump saw any military action in their lives. Bolton ran away from Vietnam as did Mr Trump (debatable) and Pompeo is a West Point cadet with zero combat experience. They just don’t understand what war is or the agony caused by their stupidity. The US strategy looks like this and never changes, they found the formula that works for them:
1. Search for a Coalition to make their actions look less barbaric and less against international law. In fact, the US is guilty of wars of aggression and if subjected to Nuremberg Trials every US President since Reagan would be executed as war criminals including those that led them by the nose. Reagan, Grenada. Clinton, Kosovo. Bush, Iraq (note not Afghanistan), Obama, his drone program killed innocents 96.5% of the time, that is murder. Trump, the attacks on Syria for non-existent “nerve gas” attacks and dropping a bomb somewhere every 12 minutes. All of this without Congress declaring war. It is a rather pathetic record and thus they try to get others to join their efforts so that they look more legit. Only the UK and perhaps France are stupid enough to blindly follow them with Australia, of all places, yelping like a little lap dog behind the main players (living in fear of China). Poland will also follow (living in fear of Russia) and trying to gain favour by killing Arabs. What will this bring them in the long run?
2. Attack a much weaker nation. Historically, since the US came into being in 1776 it was at war with someone, including native American tribes etc. somewhere in the world for 93% of the time. By 2019, the Beacon of Freedom had 226 years of war out of 243 years of your existence. It can be said that the USA never had any peace, less than a percentage point of those years were without an American boy dying somewhere for the Washington Swamp. History will also show that these perpetual wars were almost exclusively, 99%, with minor powers or tribes unable to fight back on an equal base, exceptional, eh? I think not. What is more damning is that no one requested the USA to intercede in ANY of the countries they did since 1945, acting against the very UN treaties that they signed and say we should uphold. I would say that the USA being the “Leader of the Free World” will fail every test against which all must be measured. With this they lost almost all credibility, it is sad.
3. A prolonged bombing campaign which is not “surgical” and will cause civilian casualties. It is always the same pattern. They find a friendly country that breaks its neutrality by allowing them to build up overwhelming forces. Then an air attack starts with strikes by Apache attack helicopters, stealth (stealth up to a point, depending on the opposition) fighters and bombers, missiles and Special Forces on radar stations as well as SAM sites. From there they bomb whatever they can find including hospitals (yes, many such verified attacks) and civilians. This goes on for weeks and at times, months. They obtain air superiority first. Remember this because it will not happen without a massive fight against a place like China or Russia, there, air superiority will be fought for and they will lose as certain as the sun rises tomorrow. Their strategy can only work against a much weaker military and one that is fearing to strike first. (For those interested, read either American Military Might – Debunked, or Intelligence Briefing, on how bad the US weapons really are. They lack and are technically behind in every important area from SRAAM, anti-tank missiles, artillery, armour, drones, AI, and electronic warfare. Really, when you study this objectively you will be shocked. They also have no original thinkers, Guderians or any flag officers that are outstanding. They are rated as low standards by me.)
4. And then an armoured thrust going into the heartland with ground troops/Marines and a “surprise” parachute jump on the main airport. This is done with total air supremacy and against as little opposition as possible. Where they find opposition they destroy everything in sight with panic attack mode shooting and artillery/air strikes. This causes even more infrastructure damage and terrorism later on. But they will get there and then not know what to do because they are too stupid to plan ahead. All muscle and no brains.
5. Declare victory “Mission Accomplished” and reinforce the occupation troops to stay on for years as an illegal occupation power. Always the same thing happens then. You have violent civil disobedience and terrorism that they cannot cope with. Torture, rape, arbitrary arrest and detainment as well as support (read bribes) follows to tamed warlords of extremely dubious nature. Billions of taxpayer money are lost, stolen, and used to fill the pockets of the US Corporations (and mates – France was excluded because she did not assist in the Second Iraqi Invasion). Interestingly, Syria already said that no US-led Coalition Corporation will assist in the rebuild of Syria, not one. The BRICS Nations will assist. The US response? Sanctions on any company helping to rebuild Syria.
6. War crimes then follow. Do you know how many women claimed to be raped in France, an ally, during World War Two? Some sources say 4,000 and it was certainly much more since these things are not fully reported. Read what I wrote in VOICES – War Crime USA on modern war crimes committed and the absolute horrifying culture of non-accountability as well as outright denial and cover ups by the leadership element. The US Military likes to speak about honour and the warrior culture of which they have none. When a man is willing to trade a tin of bully beef for sex (Berlin 1946-1950) you know what you are dealing with. They simply cannot keep their pants up or loyal to their wives or girlfriends at home. I wrote VOICES – War Crimes USA after finding out that they will rape or sexually abuse 30% of their own military women (true statistics, research a bit, shocking).
Thus, they will win, yes, Iran is not on an equal footing but Iran will fight hard in the Persian tradition. They can cause Vietnam type casualties. Note this is about a conventional war, not an isolated strike which may escalate, almost certainly, in conventional war. Bolton and Pompeo have Donald J Trump in a dreadful position and it is his own fault.