It seems that humankind is doomed to make the same blunders over and over again. This morning we woke to the news that the US Military launched 59 cruise missiles at Syria, claiming victory although by most account the missiles hit nothing worthwhile and achieving even less. This was an attack on a sovereign nation, an act of war under international law and the reason, a suspected, and let me repeat the word “suspected” since it is not confirmed, chemical weapons attack on civilians a few days ago. As you know, Syria is involved in a civil war, one actively encouraged by Hillary R Clinton when she was Secretary of State. I spoke about it in Code Name Anika, a book that is available free of charge on my website for you to download and read:
… I can show you even more problems coming: “The best way to help Israel deal with Iran’s growing nuclear capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad,” Hilarious in an email as Secretary of State, 31 December 2012 (thank you WikiLeaks). What she was saying here and doing, was to ensure that a civil war broke out in Syria, a fairly neutral country towards the US, leading to hundreds of thousands dead and the current steady stream of migrants to fellow NATO allies, Western Europe as well as the US. She also desires to have a no-fly zone over Syria as do some right wing nutters, this quote is taken from an interview in 2015: “I am advocating the no-fly zone both because I think it would help us on the ground to protect Syrians; I’m also advocating it because I think it gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia. The no-fly zone, I would hope, would be also shared by Russia. If they will begin to turn their military attention away from going after the adversaries of Assad toward ISIS and put the Assad future on the political and diplomatic track, where it belongs.”
Right, that sounds so Goodie-two-shoes, you have to clap hands and applaud her much doubted wisdom. Let us look at husband Bill’s efforts as US President and he was a good President most of the time, better than what followed, no doubt, he did very well with the economy, there was no “Obama Care” nor a $20 trillion debt, the books were balanced. Let us look at Bosnia and Herzegovina, Operation Deny Flight, taking place between 12 April 1993 and 20 December 1995, NATO pilots had flown 100,420 sorties and according to them and only them, stopped the war. Bill Clinton supported this tactic. It was not new, really not. There was a similar one on Iraq also, established by Mr Bush (39), to help the Kurds against Saddam Hussein. So now we know where Hilarious got this idea from, a no-fly zone over Syria, but read on, I am not done yet, we have interesting facts to cover. From a military history view, an engagement took place on 28 February 1994, USAF F-16 fighter jets shot down 4, some say 5, Serbian Republika Srpska Air Force J-21 Jastreb single-seat light attack jets. That was the first time NATO had an aerial victory since they came into existence in 1949. Without taking anything away from the F-16 pilots, the celebrated USAF Captain Scott O’Grady (shot down and rescued later on, his claim to fame and he did well) was part of the flight engaging the Serbs. They were taking on an aircraft so inferior (a weapon training airframe) that the results were a foregone conclusion and nothing else expected than total victory. God knows, this was like a modern day F-16 taking on a 1960s T-37 “Tweet.” They could not lose and did not, it was a Turkey shoot and yet, some of their famed Sidewinder missiles missed the targets (read Code Name Blue Tang what came out regarding NATO’s air-to-air missiles in the 1990s, you will be shocked beyond belief, Angelique). From this operation came the intervention in Bosnia, Operation Deliberate Force, everyone was happy and no lessons were learned since then, the answer to every conflict is no-fly zones, stop the local air force from attacking and killing civilians and so that the US arranged coup d'état can proceed merrily. Rather oddly, the chances of such a coup d'état happening in oil rich countries are 100 times (not percentages, times) more than any other country and that is not by chance, I assure you. And like most things a liberal will tell you, this sounds good, and should be supported but how? Let us look at the practical realities here.
Life has moved on since Operation Deny Flight, really, the Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991 became Russia. Many fairly obese American men scored a good-looking Russian woman for the price of a green card and then came Vladimir Putin, rebuilding his country and re-establishing a powerful military. Syrian airspace will not be undefended as was Iraq and Libya to name a few, Hilarious’s no-fly zone will have to be fought for. Russia, I said so before, according to NATO, research it, achieved more in the year they were in Syria, legally invited by the elected Syrian Government that Hilarious decided to overthrow to help Israel as we saw in her email, than what NATO could do in five years. The Russians are there, unlike NATO - the aggressors under international law, legitimately and they are going to react aggressively if such a no-fly zone is enforced or rather tried to be enforced. They are setting up their advanced surface-to-air missile batteries, the best in the world currently, the S-300 and S-400 as well as getting their allies in place. Turkey, after the 2016 coup attempt made peace with Russia (and not the US, another worrying matter), Iran is mates with Russia, so is Syria and thus the US will have to stage out from the aircraft carriers, vessels we know, read my briefing again, are extremely vulnerable or from Saudi Arabia I suppose. The Russians are also increasing their combat aircraft inside Syria, I say again, legally there, to the latest models and missiles well able to take on anything NATO or the US can field including the so called (stealth they are not) F-22 and F-35. They have warned openly and repeatedly that they will respond to any NATO attack on their aircraft that try and force them not to fly. Trust me, Vladimir Putin does not have empty lines in the sand and is not a Fifth World unable to fight back, NATO will be in a fight for its life and I doubt if NATO will win or if the US taxpayer is willing to foot another war, this time a with a major power and part of the BRICS Pact, without reason. In law, it is a declaration of war on Russia to enforce a no-fly zone or try to (the reason why the idea was promptly shot down as a viable method by the Obama White House, rightfully so, it will take at least - whenever a US General say one figure, multiply by five and you may get to the end figures - 70,000 support troops and they will be attacked wherever they are, Angelique). The Syrian no-fly zone idea, if defended by Russia, is hopelessly stupid in concept, if defended and every indication shows it will be, you will have a major clash.
I have to ask, what use is your one and only acclaimed (the most basic there is) law degree if you are too stupid to see what is seen by the rest of the world? No wonder that we failed to pass our New York Bar exam and never tried again, I am not surprised, really not and shows again, she is out of touch and her trash talking is risking a major war for what? A private and public view I suppose, a flip-flop of note? In addition, there are further problems with the constant baying for the no-fly zone in Syria, no UN backing and it is unlikely to be supported by either Russia or China, they will veto such ideas, which leaves Hilarious alone, isolated. The US is then seen as the bully and the US is not able to take on the entire world anymore, the rest of the world grew up, they are not under the top indebted nations in the world, they actually can afford to play hardball and they will. Many intelligence analysts are telling me that the US is being prodded into breaking itself financially by being over committed, yes, history repeating, a reverse of Mr Reagan’s idea to break the Soviet Union and it worked, we know what happened. Will it work in reverse? Can the US be broken without a fight? Think about it, since 9/11, $20 trillion in debt, a USAF unable to fly much and without pilots, a US Marine Corps scrounging parts for its F-18s in museums. Read what I revealed in Code Name Mel’s Choice on the Chinese Air Force flying 180 hours a month, more than a USAF fighter jock flies in a year and weep at the sad state of affairs, it is also in my briefings. Does it matter what happens afterwards where Hilarious meddled? Well, she is also on record saying that she does not care if thousands of Syrians die during the process – yes, research it, she said so more than once. She does not care, what does it matter now? When Chris Stevens and three brave men, US Military veterans, by the way, died because of Hilarious’s war in Libya, she denied it and then asked what does it matter? She lied openly because she was covering herself for greater things and probably because she really does not care, she cannot accept any responsibility for her actions, denial in motion, deplorably so. In Congress and elsewhere, afterwards, she could not recall much – her standard answer – many dozens of times, was “I cannot recall.” I am tempted to ask, what do you recall? Does it matter? I can tell you, take my words as a warning because that is what GMJ Books are, a warning and to be seen as warning, when the bombs start exploding in your malls and your kids are murdered in cold blood, and your servicemen killed, it will matter to you. Especially if you are not the one protected by the US Secret Service since the early 1990s and somehow “have lost touch with the middle class.” Yes, it will matter to you reading here, war, I can tell you, is terrible beyond anything most people can imagine, it is not a computer game where you press the reset button. … (Taken from Code Name Anika, there are many more such examples in that book and others.)
Just this morning, whilst typing the new GMJ Book, Code Name Jen, I spoke of what is known as the rules of natural justice:
… The rules of natural justice are two-fold, first to have an impartial judge presiding, and secondly, to hear the other side also before making any decision. It came from the Romans, the second part also known as “Audi Alterim Partem.” In nature you see it often, imagine two lakes filled with water but at different levels. They will always seek equilibrium, for it is the inviolable law of nature to equalize. You cannot really prevent it unless building a damn wall between them, which is then not natural anymore. … (Taken from Code Name Jen.)
The UN did not complete its investigation on who was responsible for the chemical attack. No accountable (meaning those that can be believed, sort of) organisation finished their investigations and thus it is premature to say Syria, the elected government of Syria, the agreed de facto government in law, did so. We just don’t know for sure who attack the civilians. Historically, the rebels (some call them terrorists, whatever) have used chemical weapons before. It is not impossible to suspect them too since evidence of this was found in many places in both Syria and Iraq. Some say that a chemical plant was hit by Syrian airplanes, and the tragedy occurred. Certainly, if you know something of chemical weapons, and I do, the casualties would be very much higher if military grade weapons were used, i.e. by the Syrians. Yet, the UN inspectors found they had their chemical weapons removed years ago already. Beyond this, we don’t know, we have no facts and thus the rules of natural justice had not yet been played out. However, we wake up to an American cruise missile strike?
I should look at history and so do you to try and make sense of what happened. Let us go back to 1998. I want to take something from Code Name Celery 50, a great read but not for free as is Code Name Anika:
… First, from a global view, came the 1998 United States Embassy bombings where Bill Clinton showed the entire world he had no clue how to respond to terrorism except to use the attack to get attention away from Monica Lewinsky’s claims. His response, Operation Infinite Reach, using cruise missile attacks, were not only “ineffective and useless” as a response (taken from a CIA report), it came at just the right time. Suspiciously so, the counter attack came three days after Mr Clinton gave evidence on what Ms Lewinsky did which was not a sexual relationship at all, yeah, sure, move on, what does it matter now? Naturally, the White House denied the Monica-problem played a role in their thinking, and of course, I disagree - just look at the pathetic results and wonder why the attack was launched at that time – it makes no military or intelligence sense whatsoever. Like usual, they missed. (What is more thought-provoking than the lack of sexual relationships in the White House, knowing what we know today, is that in South Africa a Muslim group bombed Planet Hollywood in Cape Town, some say in revenge for the Clinton cruise missile attacks – 2 died. See Code Name OST-M on the rise and disappearance, overnight, of Islamic extremism in South Africa, Angelique.) … (Taken from Code Name Celery 50.)
Now let us move to April 7, 2017, same story, same excuses and same crap argument and a complete disregard for the law between nations. A White House that wants to be seen as “strong” and “effective” and does not mind breaking international law when it suits them, loudly applauded by those that should know better. What is worse is that cruise missiles are the wrong weapons to destroy a runway with if that was the intention, let us see what I said in Code Name Ghost, the latest GMJ book:
… The Chinese got themselves some pretty sophisticated hardware and the two-stage DF-16 missile is one of them because the damn thing is manoeuvrable, it can change its flight trajectory to get slow moving targets. The Chinese themselves say (they grinned like hyenas in heat but we have an idea why, Angelique) that the missile will defeat anti-missile defences such as the US Patriot and Israeli Iron Dome systems. The missile also has the capability to carry three warheads, each independently targeted, either conventional high explosives or a nuclear tipped. They are accurate, a 16 feet hit radius over a distance admitted of 990 miles. China, you may not know, has the most active ballistic missile development program in the world, you have to ask, again, why? No one in the region is threatening them, clearly they see the US as their prime enemy. Let us look at more interesting facts… the DF-16 is similar to a cruise missile in the way it operates but with 2,200 to 3,300 of high explosives warhead. Contrast this to the much smaller US Tomahawk missile warhead, 1,000 pounds. Practically speaking, to achieve the same results, twice to thrice as many Tomahawks must be launched. Further, the Dongfeng-16 warhead is bi-conic, so it will grow in firepower and will have deep penetrating capabilities like the French Durandal anti-runway penetration bomb. This means they are multi-capable, able to destroy runways and bunkers - see now why the test ranges look like they look, the targeted air bases will be seriously hurt. (The Durandal was not, by the way, used during the Arab / Israeli Six Day War of 1967. What they used against Egyptian runways was a prototype French / Israeli anti-runway weapon from where comes the Durandal proper. The DF-16 is a much larger weapon system, the Durandal has a 253-pound warhead – two high explosive charges of 220 & 33 pounds each and depended on design and speed to be effective and it is. Such twin explosions will displace the concrete slabs of any runway, destroying its use, you cannot just fill a hole and hope for the best, you have to rebuilt. Tactically, runway destroying missiles are deployed by strike fighters like the F-15E and to do so they must be very close and to survive they need air superiority and the defensive systems suppressed. Not here, here it is done by cruise missiles and from a great distance away risking no pilot’s life. We believe that this is also the reason why the Patriot and Iron Dome will not be able to intercept. The incoming missile will come from much higher and very much faster than what they were designed to stop, it is a mathematical certainty that they will evade the current Patriot and Iron Dome systems. From their operational procedures, I believe that the Chinese know what they have in the DF-16 and what it may be worth to them one day. They are taking extraordinary precautions in mobility to move it around as a safeguard against counter or first strike attack as the missile is loaded on a 10×10 wheeled TEL, developed from the Soviet MAZ-537. This gives it unequalled mobility, the Chinese truck version able to load 48,501 pounds, quite a lot and go off-road. The ability to move quickly makes it harder to find, smart thinking based on the Russian model, you will never find all of them in one strike, they will retaliate but in essence, these are offensive weapons, not defensive, the question is as Foxtrot said, why? Angelique.) … (Taken from Code Name Ghost.)
I have much sympathy and hope for Donald J Trump and I write conservative books. I believe that America should be first and foremost for Americans and only Americans and that they need to get their act sorted. My late wife, an American Patriot, referred to all Democrats as Demorats which is why we do so in GMJ Books, Dramarats too at times. Nevertheless, I write what I think is correct, this attack may come back and haunt the US. Shooting a few dozen antiquated cruise missiles was no victory in any sense of the word. It is weakness demonstrated for the world to see and the world is taking note, what did you achieve here? Nothing. Let me quote again for you from Code Name Ghost, it is important:
… The Astute class submarines are heavily armed with a mixture of Spearfish heavy torpedoes and Tomahawk Block IV cruise missiles – the latest models are able to hit any target within 1,000 miles or so say the Merchants of Death so proudly (General Dynamics when first designed and now Raytheon/McDonnell Douglas, Angelique). On the other hand, and this was discussed in Code Name Phantom as well as this book by Angelique a few pages before, the Tomahawks do not carry a lot of firepower when not nuclear tipped, only about 1,000 pounds of a non-too-secret high explosive compound. That is nothing, hear me, I know explosives and what they can do. When you look at what a multirole fighter aircraft can drop and work in that each Tomahawk is $1.6 million a shot, they are beyond ridiculous ineffective cost wise. So much for that argument from the Merchants of Death, great engineering and nothing else in the real world. You would also be foolish to think that a Tomahawk cannot be shot down, it can - it is quite slow at 550 miles per hour and comes in low, an easy target. Modern CIWS systems will get a missile travelling at eight times that speed and higher and much smaller in size too. Tomahawk missiles have a very definite use in taking out high value targets with good accuracy and from a safe distance away, clearing the way, but they are not the answer to all prayers, most certainly not. In counter terrorism, without Special Forces showing what to hit, they are utterly useless. … (Taken from Code Name Ghost.)
An emergency UN Security Council meeting is called for later today. I guarantee you that nothing will happen, the usual speeches and nothing more will take place but practically speaking, Russia already vowed to increase air defences in Syria. How much closer do we need to get to conventional war before the turd brigade (politicians on all sides, they float in what they talk) wake up and stop trying to get short term popularity and start showing wisdom? Somehow, I expected better from the Donald Trump Administration.
George M James is a pseudo name for the author and used for security reasons. He is an expert on counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency operations in sub-Saharan Africa, a military historian and published author of more than 50 books. In the GMJ Series, you will learn about Covert Operations, Special Forces techniques, current political analyses and military history not known outside the select few. Every GMJ Book is based on historical fact and often what is revealed in a GMJ Book is published by the mainstream media a short while later. Many of the GMJ Books are used as training material by Police Forces (SWAT) across the world. Note please that GMJ does not claim to have served in South African Army or Police Special Forces.